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Бодлогын хүү банкуудыг угждаг хэрэгсэл үү?

Бодлогын хүү банкуудыг угждаг хэрэгсэл үү?

 


Монголын эдийн засгийг залдаг бодлогын хүү гэгч маш чухал зүйлийн талаар улстөрчид, эдийн засагчид ам уралдан ярьдаг. Policy rate буюу бодлогын хүү гэдэг нь төв банк суурьтай банкны тогтолцоотой аль ч улсад мөнгөний бодлогын хамгийн гол хэрэгсэл гэдэг нь үнэн.  Гэхдээ бодлогын хүү нь эерэг эсвэл сөрөг үр дүн өгөх нь бодлогын хүүг юу гэж тодорхойлох, ямар арга хэмжээ авахаас хамаардаг.  Өөрөөр хэлбэл, төвбанк нь мөнгөний бодлого тэр дундаа бодлогын хүүгээр дамжуулаад  улсынхаа эдийн засгийг унагах эсвэл босгоход ихээхэн нөлөөлж чадна гэсэн үг. Төвбанк гэдэг аливаа улсын улс төр, эдийн засагт голлон тоглогч институт.

Монголбанкнаас бодлогын хүүгээрээ дамжуулан авч хэрэгжүүлж байгаа арга хэмжээнүүд нь үр дүнгээ өгдөггүй. Зарим тохиолдолд бүр сөрөг үр дагавар авчрах нь түгээмэл ажиглагддаг. Үүнийг сүүлийн гурван жилд 30 хувь, өнгөрсөн хоёр сарын хугацаанд сард  5-6 хувиар унасан төгрөгийн тогтворгүй байдал, банкны салбарын хэт өндөр ашиг болоод бизнесийн бусад салбарын уналтын үзүүлэлтээс  харж болно. Асуудал юундаа байна вэ гэвэл манай улсын банкны системийн хачирхалтай тогтолцоо болоод бодлогын хүүг ойлгох ойлголтын зөрүүд буй.  Олон улсын төвшинд бодлогын хүүг томъёолсон ухагдахуун, ойлголт  болон  Монголд  юуг бодлогын хүү гэж үздэгийн хооронд том ялгаа, зөрүү байгаа аж. Олон улсын төвшинд, ер нь эдийн засагт бодлогын хүү гэдэг нь арилжааны банкууд заавал байх нөөцөө хангах үүднээс өдөртөө  өөр хоорондоо зээлдүүлдэг мөнгөнд ногдуулдаг хүүг хэлдэг. Энэ бодлогын хүү нь мөнгөний бодлогын чухал хэрэгсэл болдог bank rate буюу төвбанкнаас арилжааны банкуудад өгдөг зээлийн хүүг зохицуулдаг.  Харин манайд бол төвбанк нь арилжааны банкнуудаас зээл авч түүндээ төлж буй хүүг бодлогын хүү хэмээн нэрлэдэг.

 

Ихэнх эдийн засагч бодлогын хүүний талаар буруу, зөрүү ярьдаг. Бодлогын хүүгээр зохицуулан авсан арга хэмжээнүүд нь яагаад үр дүнгээ өгөхгүй байгааг үндэслэлтэй тайлбарлаж чаддаггүй нь нэг талаас бодлогын хүү гэж чухам юуг хэлээд байгааг сайн ойлгодоггүйтэй  холбоотой.  Тиймээс  манайд ярьж буй бодлогын хүү болоод  холбогдох бодлогын арга хэмжээг бусад улсынхтай харьцуулах нь үнэндээ утгагүй зүйл.  Дэлхийн улс орнууд төвбанкнаас арилжааны банкуудад өгч буй зээлд ногдох хүүг (бодлогын хүү биш, дээр дурдсан bank rate) мөнгөний бодлогын  гол хэрэгслээ болгодог. Энэ нь үр дүнгээ өгдөг. Харин манайд энэ нь эсрэгээрээ ба хоёр өөр хэрэгсэл, хэрэгжилтийн механизм  тул харьцуулахад хүндрэлтэй.  Манай төвбанк арилжааны банкнаас авч буй зээлд төлж буй хүүгээ ихэсгэх багасгах (мөнгөний бодлогын хамгийн гол хэрэгсэл) замаар эдийн засаг, зах зээлээ хянадаг, хянадаг ч гэж дээ хянах гэж оролддог.  Төвбанк нь арилжааны банкуудад өндөр хүү санал болгон их хэмжээний зээл авч байгаа нь эдийн засгийг зохицуулах гэхээсээ аж ахуйн нэгжүүдтэйгээ өрсөлдөгч болж байгаа хэрэг.  Нэг үгээр хэлбэл, Монголбанкны бодлогын хүү гэж нэрлээд буй хүү хэчнээн өндөр байна төдий чинээгээр банкууд эрсдэлгүй өндөр хүүгийн ашиг хүртэж, гадагш нь аж ахуйн нэгжүүдэд  зээл олгох шаардлага, хэрэгцээ бас нөөц нь багасана. Энэ нь арилжааны зээлийн хүүг өндөрт байлгах гол нэг нөхцөл нь болдог төдийгүй эдийн засгийг агшаах нөлөөтэй байдаг.  Харин бусад улсад бол бодлогын хүү өндөр байх тусмаа банкуудад ашиггүй, зээлийн өртөг өсч зээл олголт хумигдаж, эдийн засгийг агшаах нөлөөтэй.

Эндээс үзэхэд манай улсад хэрэгжиж  буй  бодлогын хүүгийн  эдийн засагт нөлөөлөх механизм  нь  тун хачирхалтай. Банкны тогтолцоо нь өөрөө эдийн засаг, бизнес гэхээсээ илүүтэй арилжааны банкны эрх ашигт үйлчилсэн шинжтэй байгаа юм.  Монголын эдийн засгийн өсөлт ба банкны ашигт ажиллагаа нь урвуу хамааралтай  байгаа нь энэхүү гаж гэмээр банкны тогтолцооны үр дагавар юм. Эдийн засгийн 10-17.5 хувийн өндөр өсөлттэй  байсан 2011-2013 онд банкны салбарын цэвэр ашиг 185-195 тэрбум төгрөгт эргэлдэж байсан бол эдийн засгийн өсөлт буурч  1-5 хувьд хүрсэн 2014-2017 онд  банкны салбарын ашиг тогтвортойгоор өсч 250-350 тэрбум  хүрснээс харахад бодлогын хүү нь үнэндээ банкуудын өндөр ашгийн эх үүсвэр болсон уялдаа буй юм. Хэдийгээр банкуудад ашиггүй байж болох ч бодлогын хүүг бууруулахад зээл олголт нэмэгдэж эдийн засагт эерэг үр дүн авчирдаг. Жишээ нь 2015 онд 13 хувь байсан бодлогын хүүг 2016 онд 12 хувь болгон бууруулахад  зээл олголт  11.8 их наядаас 12.6 их наяд хүрч даруй зургаан хувиар, 2017-2018 онд бодлогын хүүг  хоёр хувиар бууруулан 10 болгоход зээл олголт  даруй 15.8 их наяд хүрч өмнөх жилээс 17 хувиар өссөн байна.

 

Манай банкны системийн өөр нэг хачирхалтай онцлог гэвэл арилжааны банкуудаас  Монголбанк авч буй зээлийн эх үүсвэр нь ихэнхдээ Монголбанк өөрөө байдаг. Тухайлбал, арилжааны банкууд Монголбанкнаас 14 хувийн хүүтэй  зээл аваад (хоёр жилийн хугацаатай ЗГҮЦ 2017/01/11) тэр мөнгөөрөө эргүүлээд  18 хувийн хүү төлдөг төвбанкны үнэт цаасыг худалдан авах жишээтэй. Дөрвөн хувийн ашиг гэсэн үг.  Энэ хачирхалтай тогтолцоо нь өөрөө арилжааны банкуудын бизнесийн зээл гаргах үндсэн үүргийг хязгаарлаж буй юм.  Өнөөдөр Монголбанк 4.1 их наяд, Засгийн газар 3.4 их наяд, төр засаг маань нийт 7.5 их наяд төгрөгийн зээлийг арилжааны банкуудаас авч үүнийхээ  хүүд нь жилд 700-800 тэрбум төгрөг төлж байна.  Гэхдээ өөрөө өөрийгөө алдагдалтай зээлээр санхүүжүүлэхгүй байх, бодлогын хүүгээ бага төвшинд барьж арилжааны банкуудын ашгийн төлөө бус улсынхаа  эдийн засаг, бизнесээ дэмжих бодлого явуулах эрх бөгөөд орон зай, боломж нь Монголбанкинд өөрт нь бий.  Харин суурь  хямралын шинж нүүрлээд буй эдийн засгийг болзошгүй хүндрэлээс гаргах, тогтвортой, урт хугацааны хөгжлийг хангахад банкны салбарын тогтолцоонд томоохон шинэчлэл хийх шаардлага байгаа юм. Үүнд "Монголбанкны  бодлогын хүү” гэгч өөрсдийн зохиосон өнгөлөн далдлалттай механизмаар арилжааны банкуудын эрх ашгийг хамгаалсан бүтцийг засах, бодлогын хүү гэсэн ойлголтыг олон улсын ухагдахуунаар хэрэглэх, Монголбанк өөртөө алдагдалтай зээл өгөх замаар банкуудыг дэмжиж арилжааны зээлийн хүүг өндөр байлгадаг бодлогыг хориглох арга хэмжээ орно. Эцэст нь дүгнээд  хэлэхэд Монголын эдийн засаг унах, унагаах, сэхэх, сэхээх  нь Монголбанкнаас явуулж буй мөнгөний бодлогоос, мөн шаардагдаж буй шинэчлэлийг хийх эсэхээс ихээхэн хамааралтай байгаа юм.

Эдийн засагч Х.Батсуурь

Эх сурвалж: "Зууны мэдээ” сонин


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