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Сүүлийн үед Итали болон Европын Холбооны /ЕХ/ хооронд дэгдсэн зөрчил улам хурцадлаа. Төсвийнхөө алдагдлыг бууруул гэсэн ЕХ-ны шаардлагыг хүлээн авахаас Италийн засгийн газар эрс татгалзжээ. Одоо Ромын эсрэг торгуулийн болон хориг арга хэмжээ авч магадгүй байгаа боловч Италийн эрх баригч эвслийн засгийн газар ЕХ-ны шаардлагыг биелүүлэхийг хүсэхгүй байгаагийн дээр биелүүлэх боломжгүй болчихоод байгаа юм. Учир нь, тус улсын нийгэм-эдийн засгийн байдлаас үүдэн засгийн газарт ямар нэгэн маневр хийх орон зай үлдсэнгүй. Итали улс дампуурах нь нэгэнт тодорхой болсон бөгөөд энэ нь ЕХ болон Европын нэгдсэн валют болох еврод "үхлийн цохилт” болно гэж зарим ажиглагчид үзэж байна. Үүнтэй харьцуулахад 2015 оны Грекийн хямрал нь хүүхдийн тоглоом наргиан мэт санагдах болно. Үүссэн нөхцөл байдлыг Европын хэвлэл мэдээллийн хэрэгслүүд "эмгэнэлтэй” гэж тодорхойлж байна.
 
Германы эдийн засагч Хенрик Мюллерын үзэж байгаагаар, улсад нь хэтийдсэн их өрийг төлөхийг хүсэхгүй байгаа ядууралд өртсөн италичуудын байдлыг ойлгож болох юм. Харин Италид засгийн эрхийг барьж буй популистуудын эвслийн явуулж буй бодлого нь нийт Европыг хамарсан сүйрэл рүү түлхэж байна. "Умардын Лиг” /Лиг/-ийн үндсэрхэг үзэлтнүүд ба зүүний "5 од” намаас бүрдсэн эвсэл нь сонгуулийн өмнө өгсөн амлалтуудаа биелүүлэхийн тулд өрийн таазыг нэмэгдүүлнэ гэж мэдэгджээ. Тэдний амласан зүйлүүдээс нэлээд нь популист шинжтэй. Тухайлбал, "5 од” хөдөлгөөнийхөн ядуучуудын орлогын хамгийн доод баталгаат хэмжээг нэмэгдүүлнэ гэсэн бол "Лиг”-ийнхэн татварыг бууруулна хэмээн амлажээ. Шинээр батлах төсөвт ДНБ-ний 133 хувиас давж, тэртэй тэргүй асар их хэмжээнд хүрчихээд буй улсын өрийг нэмэгдүүлэхээр тусгах бололтой. Ромын эрх баригчдын явуулж буй бодлого нь улсын өрийг ДНБ-ний 60 хувиас хэтрүүлж болохгүй гэж заасан ЕХ-ны Тогтвортой байдал, өсөлтийн гэрээг зөрчиж байна. Гэтэл үүний сацуу шинэчлэл, бүтцийн өөрчлөлт хийх мөнгийг шинэ төсөвт суулгаагүй байгааг шинжээчид онцлон тэмдэглэлээ. Энэ нь мөнгөө үрээд дуусгачихжээ гэсэн үг.   
Үүссэн бэрхшээл нь зөвхөн эдийн засгийн төдийгүй аажмаар улс төрийн асуудал болон хувирч байна. Энэ нь Брюссельтэй /ЕХ/ харьцах тал дээр Ромын эрх баригчдын зүгээс үндсэрхэг хандлага гаргаж байгаатай холбоотой. Европын Комиссын зүгээс цагаачлалын хүнд хэцүү хямралыг зохицуулахад нь Италид туслахыг хүсэхгүй байгаа нь италичуудын бухимдлыг төрүүлж байгаа бөгөөд улс үндэстэн рүүгээ чиглэсэн бодлого явуулахад нь саад учруулж буй өөр олон шалтгаан бий. Хэдийгээр лирийн ханш сул байсан ч гэсэн еврод шилжихээс өмнө Италийн эдийн засаг эрчимтэй хөгжиж байсан юм. Грекийн Эдийн засгийн сайд асан, нэрт эдийн засагч Янис Варуфакис-ын дүгнэн хэлснээр, хямралын гол шалтгаан нь "арай дэндүү бүтэлгүй байдлаар” бодож олсон валютын холбоо аж.
Энэ холбоо нь Италийн эдийн засгийн амьсгал нь давхцаж, харин Герман улс өрмийг нь түүж авч байхаар зохион байгуулагдсан аж. Өнөөдрийг хүртэлх хугацаанд "Европын тал баримтлагч” Италийн засгийн газрууд Брюсселийн зааврыг сохроор дагаж, хатуу хэмнэлтийн бодлого явуулж ирсэн нь эдийн засгийг бүрэн зогсонги байдалд орууллаа.        
 
Германы "Беренберг” банкны ерөнхий эдийн засагч Хольгер Шмидинг хэлэхдээ "Италийн төдийгүй еврогийн бүсийн тогтвортой байдалд заналхийлж буй олон жил үргэлжлэх хямрал одоо дөнгөж эхэлж байна” гэжээ. Италийн хувьд зах зээлүүдийн сөрөг хариу үйлдлүүд нь гол аюул учруулж байгаа бөгөөд өрөө төлөхөд нь улам бүр бэрхшээлтэй болсоор байна. Италийн үнэт цааснуудын ханш унаж, "муу хувьцаанууд”-ын хэмжээ нэмэгдэж байгаа нь банкуудын байдлыг хүндрүүллээ. Ингэснээр Италийн эдийн засгийн тулгуур болсон жижиг, дунд бизнесийнхэн банкнаас зээл авч чадахгүйд хүрнэ. Үүний улмаас санхүү, эдийн засгийн уналт задралын битүү мушгиралдсан гогцоо үүсч байгаа юм.
Байдлыг ажваас, 2019 оны 5 дугаар сард болох Европын парламентын сонгууль хүртэлх хугацаанд ЕХ-ны зүгээс Италид 3,4 тэрбум еврогийн торгууль ногдуулахаа улс төрийн шалтгаанаар түр азнах бололтой. Гэвч зах зээл ийм удаан хугацаанд хүлээхгүй бөгөөд ирэх оны эх гэхэд Италийн банкууд хүнд цохилт амсахаар байна. Үүний сацуу засгийн эрхэнд гарсан популистууд өмнөх засгийн газруудын хэрэгжүүлэхээр баталсан маш чухал хэд хэдэн бүтцийн шинэчлэлийг цуцалж, тухайлбал, тэтгэврийн насны босгыг доошлуулахаар шийдвэрлэсэн нь байдлыг улам хүндрүүллээ. Шинжээчдийн үзэж байгаагаар, тус улсын санхүүгийн тогтолцоо ийм ачааллыг хоёроос дээш жилийн хугацаанд дааж чадахгүй аж. Энэ нь "Италийн эмгэнэлт явдал” жүжгийн эхний үзэгдэл эхэллээ гэсэн үг. Үйл явдал ийм маягаар цааш өрнөх аваас 2021 он эсвэл 2022 онд Итали улс еврогийн бүсээс гарахаас өөр аргагүйд хүрч тун магадгүй.
Италийн эдийн засагт үүссэн асуудлууд нь шинэ биш бөгөөд олон арван жилээр хуримтлагдаж, ялангуяа тус улс Европын нэгдсэн валют болох еврод шилжсэнтэй холбоотойгоор маш хурцаар илэрсэн юм. Яваандаа эдийн засгийн өсөлтийн удаашрал, бүтцийн гажуудал, хөрөнгө оруулалтын дутагдал, хөдөлмөрийн бүтээмжийн уналт болон ажилгүйдлээс шалтгаалсан "тамын хольц” аажмаар бий болов. Эдийн засгийн гол үзүүлэлтүүдээр Итали улс Дорнод Европын орнуудын түвшин рүү ойртож ирлээ. Шинжлэх ухаан, инновацид ДНБ-нийхээ дөнгөж 1,3 хувийг зарцуулж байгаа нь Германтай харьцуулахад 2 дахин доогуур үзүүлэлт юм. Гадаадын шууд хөрөнгө оруулалт гэхээр зүйл бараг үгүй болов. Хөдөлмөрийн зах зээл дээр байдал нэн эмзэг байна. Тус улсын хөдөлмөрийн чадвартай хүн амын дөнгөж 65 хувь нь ажил хөдөлмөр эрхэлж байгаа бол Германд энэ үзүүлэлт 80 хувь байх жишээтэй. Ажил хайсан италичууд, ялангуяа шинжлэх ухааны салбарынхан бөөн бөөнөөрөө хилийн чанадыг зорьж байна. Эдийн засагт үүссэн бэрхшээлүүд нь иргэдийн амьдралын түвшин, орлого буурахад хүргэв. Ядуурлаас доогуур түвшинд хүн амын 10 гаруй хувь амьдарч байгаа нь Дорнод Европын орнуудын үзүүлэлт юм. /Германд 3-4 хувь/.  
Европын тэргүүлэх эдийн засагчдын үзэж байгаагаар, эдийн засгийн болон нийгмийн уналтын тойргийг таслах ганцхан арга байгаа бөгөөд энэ нь санхүүгийн салбарыг тогтворжуулахын зэрэгцээ эдийн засгийн өсөлтийг хангах явдал ажээ. Гэвч тэтгэврийн насыг наашлуулах, татварыг бууруулах талаар эрх баригч эвслийн санал болгож буй арга хэмжээнүүд нь хямралыг улам л ужгируулж байна. Түүнээс гадна, Брюссельтэй сөргөлдөж байгаа нь тус улсын эдийн засагт улам ихээр хохирол учруулж, зээлжих эрхийн чансаа нь буурахад хүргэнэ. Улс өрөө төлөх, үйлдвэр аж ахуйн газрууд үйлдвэрлэлд оруулах хөрөнгө оруулалтаа санхүүжүүлэхэд улам бүр бэрхшээлтэй болсоор байна. Эдгээрийг хийж чадахгүйгээр эдийн засгийн өсөлтийг хангах боломжгүй билээ. Түүнээс гадна, еврогийн бүсийн орнуудын хувьд Европын эв нэгдлийн үндсэн зарчмуудыг илт зөрчиж буй засгийн газарт туслах хүсэл өчүүхэн ч алга.
 
Дмитрий Добров
 
Орчуулсан Б.Адъяахүү
Эх сурвалж: Монцамэ агентлаг 

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