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Үнийн өсөлт хагас сая хүнийг ядуурал руу түлхэнэ

Өдөрт 5500-гаас доош төгрөгөөр амьжиргаагаа залгуулдаг 900 мянга гаруй иргэн байна

Инфляц өсвөл ядуурлын хавцал руу унах хагас сая хүн Монголд байна. Хэрэглээний үнийн өсөлт иргэдийн ахуй амьдралаар наадаж, ядуурал хэмээх нийгмийн хорт хавдар Монголыг нэрвэж буйн нэг буруутнаар инфляцыг нэрлэхээс өөр аргагүйд хүрлээ.

Дэлхийн банк, үндэсний статистикийн хорооны (ҮСХ) өнгөрсөн сард шинээр танилцуулсан "Ядуурлын өнөөгийн өнгө төрх” судалгаа Монголын хүн амын 30 орчим хувь нь ядууралд өртөж, баян, хоосны ялгаа туйлдаа хүрснийг харуулснаас гадна үнийн өсөлт хэмээх үл үзэгдэгч хүчин зүйл иргэдийн амьдралыг анир чимээгүй дарамталж буйг дахин баталлаа. Монголын нийгмийн амьдралыг хоёр жил тутамд нэг удаа тод томруун тольдох боломж олгодог энэ судалгааны шинэ үзүүлэлтүүдэд анхаарлаа хандуулна уу.

Ядуурлын шугамыг хэрхэн тогтоосон бэ. Нэг хүнд хоногт шаардлагатай 2100 калорийн илчлэг бүхий хүнсний бүтээгдэхүүн болон наад захын хүнсний бус бусад бараа, үйлчилгээг худалдан авахад шаардагдах зардал юм. Үндэсний ядуурлын шугамыг зөвхөн судалгаа хоорондох үнийн индексээр индексжүүлэн шинэчилдэг бөгөөд 2018 оны нэг хүнд сард ногдох ядуурлын шугам 166'580 төгрөг байна.

2018 оны байдлаар Монгол Улсад өдөрт 5500-гаас доош төгрөгөөр амьжиргаагаа залгуулдаг 900 мянга гаруй иргэн байна. Тэд бол дэлхийн банк, ҮСХ-ны ядуурлын шугамын доогуур бичигдсэн иргэд. Тодруулбал, хүний наад захын хэрэгцээгээ ч хангаж чаддаггүй, өдөрт зохих ёстой илчлэг, тэжээлээ авдаггүй нийгмийн нэг хэсгийг энэ бүлэгт хамруулж, эдгээр иргэний хэрэглээний дээд босгыг 166 мянган төгрөгөөр тогтоосон нь энэ. Ядуу хэмээх ангилалд багтаж буй эдгээр иргэний сарын бүх хэрэглээ нийлээд дээрх босгыг давдаггүй, өдрийн хоол хүнс нь 2200 төгрөгөөс хэтэрдэгүй байх жишээтэй. Тиймээс 166 мянган төгрөг хэмээх цэгийг Монголын нийгмийн хэрэглээний ёроол болгож, уг түвшнээр ядуурлын улаан шугам татсан байна.

Гэтэл энэ улаан шугам 25 хувиар өсөхөд Монголд ядуурлын ангал руу гулсан унахад бэлэн хагас сая иргэн ирмэг дээр нь зогсож байгаа аж. Өөрөөр хэлбэл, өдгөө 166 мянган төгрөгөөр хэмжигдэж байсан иргэдийн суурь хэрэглээгээ хангах доод зардал 25 хувиар өсөж, 200 мянган төгрөг давахад Монголд наад захын хэрэглээгээ нөхөж чадахгүй дахин 475 мянган хүн байгааг гадаад, дотоодын шинжээчид танилцуулсан байна. Ингэснээр иргэдийн суурь хэрэгцээгээ хангах өртөг зардал өсөхийн хэрээр гэдэс цатгалан, мөр бүтэн явах хүний тоо улам буурах нь. Иргэдийн сард авдаг цалин, хэтэвч дэх мөнгөний үнэ цэнэ нь буурахад орлого өсөөгүй нөхцөлд үнийн өсөлт ангалын ирмэг дээр дэнжгэнэж явсан хүмүүсийг ямар ч авралгүй ядуурлын далайд живүүлдэг байна. Тэгвэл манай улсад сүүлийн жилүүдэд өрхийн орлого нь зарлагаа давж өссөн билүү. Давах нь бүү хэл зарлагын өсөлтөө ч гүйцдэггүй. Энэ оны эхний улирлын байдлаар өрхийн дундаж зарлага 1.33 сая төгрөгтэй тэнцэж байхад орлого үүнээс 70 орчим мянган төгрөгөөр дутуу байна. Бас сүүлийн долоон жил өрхийн дундаж зарлага бараг гурав дахин өссөн байхад иргэдийн худалдан авах чадварыг илэрхийлдэг бодит цалин үүнээс 4.6 дахин удаан буюу 64 орчим хувиар өссөн байна.

"2016 онд ядуурлын шугам 146 мянган төгрөгт тогтож байсан бол 2018 онд энэ дүн 20 мянган төгрөгөөр нэмэгдэж 166 мянган төгрөгтэй тэнцсэн. Энэ нь иргэдийн орлого, хэрэглээ нэмэгдсэнээс үүссэн өсөлт биш харин бараа бүтээгдэхүүний үнэ өндийснөөс үүдэлтэй” хэмээн үндэсний статистикийн хорооны дарга А.Ариунзаяа тайлбарлаж байна.

Статистикийн байгууллага, төв банкнаас голдуу танилцуулдаг, энгийн иргэдийн амьдралаас хол мэт сонсогддог инфляц хэмээх үгийн ард Монголын мянга мянган өрхийн амьдрал нуугдаж, өл зогоох хоолны хэмжээ нь хамаарч байдгийг үүнээс харж болно. Өөрөөр хэлбэл, үнийн өсөлт буюу инфляц иргэдийн амьдралыг дэнслэх нийгмийн нэг жинлүүр. Гэтэл үнийн өсөлт болон макро эдийн засгийн бусад өөрчлөлт ирэх саруудад ч Монголын нийгэм дэх ядуучуудын армийг тэлж магадгүй хэмээн статистикийн байгууллага анхааруулж байна.

"Монголд ядуурлын улаан шугамын ойролцоо байгаа хүн амын тоо өндөр байгаа. Макро эдийн засаг хүндэрч, бараа бүтээгдэхүүний үнэ ханш нэмэгдэж, эрүүл мэнд муудвал эдгээр хүн ядуурал руу гулсах магадлал өндөр байна. Эдгээр иргэнийг бараг ядуу хүн ам хэмээн томьёолдог” гэж дэлхийн банкны эдийн засагч Икүко Уочи тайлбарласан юм. Цаашлаад НӨАТ болон онцгой албан татвар нь ядуу иргэдэд илүү дарамт үзүүлж, тэгш бус байдлыг бий болгож байна хэмээн дүгнэжээ.

Шинжээчдийн сэрэмжлүүлж буй эрсдэлүүд тулгарвал өдгөө 900 мянга байгаа ядуу иргэний тоо хагас саяар нэмэгдэж, 1.5 саяд дөхнө. Ингэснээр Монголын хүн амын тал нь ядууралд нэрвэгдэж, гурван хүн тутмын нэг ядуу хэмээх тоо хэдийн хуучирч, хоёр хүн тутмын нэг нь энэ аюулд өртөх юм. Цаашлаад Монгол Улсын хүн ам баян, ядуу хэмээх хоёр туйлд хуваагдах эрсдэл бий.

Гэхдээ инфляц нийгмийн дайсан биш. Төгрөгийн ханш өргөн хэрэглээний бараа, бүтээгдэхүүний өмнө үнэгүйдэхийн хэрээр иргэдийн хэтэвч нимгэрдэг ч улс орнуудын туршлагаас харахад инфляц эдийн засгийн өсөлтийг дагаж байдаг. Энэ хэрээр дотоодод мөнгөний эргэлт эрчимжиж, үйлдвэрлэл, үйлчилгээ идэвхэждэг нь үнэн.

Гэхдээ орлого өсөөгүй нөхцөлд инфляцын түвшин нэмэгдвэл энэ нь өрхийн амьжиргааг боомилж, зарим иргэнийг харангалах хатуу шалгуурын өмнө аваачдаг. Мөн үнийн өсөлт жирийн иргэд, эмзэг бүлгийнхэнд бүхнээс түрүүнд мэдрэгдэж, хамгийн хүчтэй өвтгөдөг нь маргаангүй юм.

• Иргэдийн суурь хэрэглээгээ хангах доод зардал 25 хувиар өсөхөд Монголд наад захын хэрэглээгээ нөхөж чадахгүй дахин 475 мянган хүн нэмэгдэнэ.

• Энгийн иргэдийн амьдралаас хол мэт сонсогддог инфляц хэмээх үгийн ард Монголын мянга мянган өрхийн амьдрал нуугдаж, өл зогоох хоолны хэмжээ нь хамаарч байдаг.

• Инфляцыг зохистой түвшинд удирдаж, төгрөгийн ханшийг хамгаалахгүйгээр иргэдээ ядуурлаас гаргах талаар бодоод ч хэрэггүй.

Сүүлийн хоёр жилд Монголын эдийн засаг 6-8 хувиар өсөж, ДНБ-ий өсөлтийн хурдаараа бүс нутагтаа дээгүүрт бичигдэж буйг албаныхан ам уралдан сайрхаж байгаа. Гэтэл сүүлийн хоёр жилийн судалгаагаар яагаад ядуурал дорвитой буурсангүй вэ. Эдийн засаг төдий хувиар тэлсэн ч инфляц 6-8 хувиар дагаад нэмэгдчихээр сайрхаад буй өсөлт нь яаж ч иргэдийн амьдралд наалдах вэ дээ. Энэ оны тавдугаар сарын байдлаар улсын хэмжээнд инфляц 7.9 хувьтай байна.

Эцэст нь, макро эдийн засгийн сэргэлтийн нэг шинж болдог инфляц эргээд иргэдийг ядуурал руу түлхэх хүчин зүйл болж байна. Тиймээс бид инфляцыг зохистой түвшинд удирдаж, төгрөгийн ханшийг хамгаалахгүйгээр иргэдээ ядуурлаас гаргах талаар бодоод ч хэрэггүй. Үүний тулд инфляц зохистой байх орчин нөхцөл бүрдүүлэх, макро эдийн засгийн бүтцийг эрүүлжүүлэх нь чухал байна.

Эх сурвалж: Засгийн газрын мэдээ

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