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Зэсийн үнэ энэ янзаараа байвал ирэх жилийн төсвийн орлого “төөрч“ мэднэ

Зэсийн үнэ энэ янзаараа байвал ирэх жилийн төсвийн орлого “төөрч“ мэднэ

 


2019 оны төсөв урьд байгаагүй өндөр орлого зарлагыг  шингээж өгснөөрөө  онцгой. Сонгуулийн өмнөх жил  хүртэл МАН амлалтынхаа биелэлтийг  "бөөндөх” хэмжээнд  хүртэл  хуримтлагдсаныг энэ төсөв хэлээд байх  шиг.

Товчхондоо бүтээн байгуулалт, цалин тэтгэвэр зэрэг нийгмийн шийдлүүд рүү  "хүч хаясан”  төсөв болсон. Ингэхдээ төсвийн орлогыг өмнөх оноос 2,4 их наядаар огцом нэмэгдүүлж,  9 их наяд 676.5 тэрбум төгрөг  байхаар тооцсон. Засгийн газрын энэ тооцооллыг УИХ засваргүйгээр батлаад буй.   Сангийн сайд Ч.Хүрэлбаатар ч ийм хэмжээний орлогыг төсөвт төвлөрүүлэх нь "Чанга” хэмээн тодотгосон ч  хэрэгжих бүрэн боломжой гэж байгаа юм. 

Манай улс 2019 онд 1.4 сая тн зэсийг тонн тутмыг нь 6272 ам доллараар экспортолж 1.3 их наяд төгрөгийн орлого олно гэж төсөөлөөд байгаа юм.

Энэ мөрөөдлийнхөө  орлогыг  төлөвлөхдөө мөнөөх л уул уурхайн экспортод  дулдуйдсан хэрэг. Өөрөөр хэлбэл ирэх онд уул уурхайн салбарын орлогыг 2018 оны батлагдсан дүнгээс 1.3 их наяд төгрөгөөр нэмэгдэж нийт 3.0 их наяд төгрөгт хүргэхээр тооцжээ. 

Энэ нь төсвийн нийт орлогын 27.1 хувийг бүрдүүлэхээр байгаа юм. Энэ дундаас  нүүрс болон зэсийн экспортоос тус бүр 1.3 их наядыг төвлөрүүлнэ. Уул уурхайн салбараас төсөвт орох орлогыг ингэж 1,3 их наядаар  шууд нэмэгдүүлэх шалтгаан нь ирэх жил нүүрсний экспортыг 42 сая тоннд хүргэх зорилттой уялдаж  байгаа хэмээн тодотгож байсан.

Ингэхдээ  төсөвт 2019 онд нүүрс тонн нь 75.9, зэсийн баяжмал 6272 ам долларын үнэтэй  байхаар тус тус тооцсон байдаг.  Өөрөөр хэлбэл манай улс 2019 онд 1.4 сая тн зэсийг тонн тутмыг нь 6272 ам доллараар экспортолж 1.3 их наяд төгрөгийн орлого олно гэж төсөөлөөд байгаа юм.

Гэвч өнөөдрийн байдлаар Лондонгийн металлын биржид зэсийн ханш 5987 ам.доллараар борлуулж байгаа нь бидний төсөөлсөн үнээс  хавьгүй доогуур байгаа юм. Ерөнхийдөө 2018 оны зэсийн үнэд баярлах зүйл, өөдрөг хандлага тун бага харагдсан тэр янзаараа л байна. Саяхан болтол, тухайлбал 2017 онд зэсийн ханш 7000 доллар давж байсан бол сүүлийн саруудад тасралтгүй буурч байна.

Зэсийн үнийн энэ уруудаж буй хандлага 2019 оны эхээр хэвээр хадгалагдаж,  6000 ам доллараас давах  шинж тэмдэг одоогоор лав харагдахгүй байна. Ингэхээр төсөвт суусан төсөөлөл төөрч, орлого тэр хэмжээгээр тасархад хүрэхээр байгаа юм.

Хэдийгээр дэлхийн зэсийн эрэлт сүүлийн 50 жилд 3 дахин нэмэгдэж, одоо 23 сая тн орчим болсон ч үнийн хувьд  хөөрч баярлах зүйлээр бага байна.  Дашрамд дурдахад 2010-2012 оны үед зэсийн үнэд үүлэн чөлөөний нар гийж, тонн нь 10 мянган ам доллараас дээш давж байсан удаатай.  

Манай улс жилд дунджаар 1,4 сая тонн зэсийн баяжмал үйлдвэрлэж, үйлдвэрлэлийн хэмжээгээр дэлхийд 15 дугаар байрт жагсаж, дэлхийн зэсийн баяжмалын үйлдвэрлэлийн 1.9 хувийг бүрдүүлдэг.

М.Нэргүй


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