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М.Болд: Зээлийн хүүг бууруулах нь бидний зорилт хэдий ч хөрс алга

 

 

М.Болд: Зээлийн хүүг бууруулах нь бидний зорилт хэдий ч хөрс алга

 

Эдийн засагч ярьж байна.

-Зээлийн хүүг бууруулах ёстой гэдэг асуудлыг хөндөж байна. Харин салбарынхан үүнийг эсэргүүцэж байна л даа. Зах зээлийн зарчмаас гажиж хүчээр барих нь эрсдэл дагуулна гээд?

-Хүү өндөр байхыг банкууд дэмждэггүй. Зээлийн хүү өндөр байвал зээлийн эрсдэл нэмэгддэг. Хадгаламжийн хүү өндөр байвал банкинд ихээхэн зардалтай. Банкууд хүү буураасай гэж хүсч байна. Банкууд болон иргэд, аж ахуйн нэгжүүд харилцан тохиролцож хадгаламж, зээлийн хүүг тохирдог. Гагцхүү төрөөс энэ бизнесийн харилцаанд хөндлөнгөөс хүчээр муйхар аргаар хүүг бууруулж болохгүй гэж эдийн засагчид, банкныхан ярьж байгаа юм.

-Иргэдийн хувьд зээлийн хүү буурах хэрэгтэй гэдэг байр сууринаас зээлийн хүү буурах хэрэгтэй гэдэг байр сууринаас хандаж байна. Яагаад гэвэл ЖДҮХС-гаас гурван хувийн хүүтэй зээл гарч байхад яагаад бууж болохгүй юм бэ гэдэг асуулт гарч байна л даа?

-ЖДҮХС-гийн зээлийн эх үүсвэр бол та бидний татварт төлсөн хүүгүй мөнгө юм. Татвар төлөгчдийн мөнгийг төрийн янз бүрийн сангаар дамжуулж бага хүүтэй эсвэл хүүгүй зээлдүүлж байна. Бага хүүтэй зээлнэ гээд төрийн албан хаагчид санхүүгийн мэргэжлийн бус хүмүүс банкны ажил хийх гээд байдаг нь эцэстээ татвар төлөгчдийн мөнгийг үрэн таран хийж улмаар алдагдалд оруулдаг. Банкны зээлийн эх үүсвэр бол иргэд, компаниудын 6-14 хувийн хүүтэй харилцах, хадгаламжийн мөнгө юм шүү дээ.

-Мэдээж зах зээлийн зарчмаар тогтож байгаа үнийг төрийн оролцоотойгоор барих нь эдийн засагт сөрөг үр дагавар авчирдаг гэдгийг эдийн засагчид онцолдог. Таныхаар?

-Социалист, коммунист дэглэмийн үед төрөөс үнэ тогтоож байгаад нийтээрээ сүйрэн унасан явдал саяхных. Одоо ч зарим салбарт төр үнэ тогтоосон хэвээр байгаа. Үнийн зөрүүгээс үүссэн алдагдлыг татвар төлөгчид үүрч байгаа. Үр тариа, гурил, нүүрс, цахилгаан, дулаан, шатахууны үнийг төрөөс үе үе зохицуулах гэж оролдож байгаа нь эдийн засаг, бизнесийн харилцаанд гажуудал үүсгэж хөгжлийг боомилж байна. Төрийн оролцоо байгаа онохгүйгээс болж дээрх салбарт дотоод, гадаадын хөрөнгө оруулалт орох, бүтээгдэхүүн үйлчилгээний хангамж нэмэгдэх, зах зээлийн бодит үнэ тогтоход саад болж байна. Одоо банкны хадгаламж, зээлийн хүүг тогтоох гэж байгаа бол олон улсад "санхүүгийн салбарыг нухчин дарах” гэж нэрлэдэг зүйл рүү Монгол Улс гулсан орох болно.

-Хэрэв төрийн оролцоотойгоор зээлийн хүүг хүчээр барих болбол гарах үр дагавар нь юу вэ?

-Зээлийн хүүг хүчээр барина гэдэг нь мөнгөн хөрөнгөд төрөөс үнэ тогтооно гэсэн үг. Тойруу замаар хадгаламжийн мөнгөнд үнэ тогтооход хүргэнэ. Зээлийн эх үүсвэр буюу түүхий эд нь хадгаламж байдаг. Хадгаламжийн мөнгө бол таны хувийн өмч. Хувийн өмчид төр үнэ тогтоох болж байна. Зөвхөн чинээлэг хэсэг бус нэг сая орчим хүүхэд тэтгэврийн насныхан хадгаламжтай байгааг мартаж болохгүй. Бодит байдлаас бага хүүтэй хадгаламжинд хүмүүс мөнгөө хийхгүй. Хадгаламж буурвал зээл олгох мөнгө багасна. Ингээд үнэ тогтоовол зээлийн олдоц улам хумигдана. Барьцаа зээлийн олдоц улам хумигдана. Барьцаа баталгаа муутай бичил, жижиг бизнес эрхлэгчид. өрхүүдэд олгох зээл буурна. Малын маханд үнэ тогтоовол дэлгүүрийн лангуу хоосрохтой адил гэдгийг ойлгох хэрэгтэй.

-Зээлийн хүү өндөр байна гэдэг асуудлыг ярихдаа гадны улс орнуудтай жишдэг. Тэгвэл бид дэлхийн эдийн засгийн хаана байгаагаас хамаарч зээлийн хүү буурах асуудлыг ярих ёстой гэдэг байр суурь ч бас бий?

-Япон, Америк шиг өндөр хөгжилтэй, инфляцийн төвшин нь нам дор орнуудтай өөрсдийгөө жиших нь өрөөсгөл. Өөрөөр хэлбэл, ямааг тэмээтэй адилтгаж болохгүйтэй ижил зүйл. Манайхтай ойролцоо төвшний орнууд хүүгээ хүчээр тогтоолоо гээд гайхалтай хөгжөөгүйг бас санах хэрэгтэй. Зээлийн олдоц нь муудсан 75 улс орны судалгааг Дэлхийн банкнаас гаргасан.

-Зээлийн хүү тогтоход зах зээлийн нөхцөл байдлаас гадна эдийн засгийн суурь үзүүлэлт тэр дундаа мөнгөний зах зээл, бодлогын хүү, хадгаламжийн хүү нөлөөлөх хүчин зүйлийг ч ярих шаардлага тулгарч байна?

-Зөвхөн хүү биш, бодит эдийн засаг олон улсын зах зээл дээр өрсөлдөхүйц бараа бүтээгдэхүүн, үйлчилгээ нөлөөлнө. Тодруулбал, дотоодын үйлдвэрлэлийг олон улсын стандартад нийцэхүйц бүтээгдэхүүн үйлдвэрлэх хүчин чадалтай болох хөшүүрэг дутаж байгааг бизнесийнхэн хэлдэг шүү дээ. Тэгэхээр дотоодын үйлдвэрлэл хөгжиж, бүтээгдэхүүнээ экспортод гаргаж дэлхийн зах зээл дээр борлуулж чадвал валютын орлого олдог болно. Энэ нь эцэстээ үнийн тогтвортой байдлыг хангана. Үүний тулд төрийн эдийн засг мөнгө, сангийн бодлогыг сайтар боловсруулахын сацуу дотоод, гадаад худалдааны бодлого, татварын бодлогын уялдаа зэрэг нь урт хугацаанд тогтвортой байх хэрэгтэй.

-Хэрэв зээлийн хүүг бууруулна гэвэл хадгаламжийн хүү буурах нь зайлшгүй. Энэ нь санхүүгийн зах зээлд хэрхэн нөлөөлөх вэ. Магадгүй хадгаламжийн хүү буурахтай зэрэгцэн банкнаас мөнгөө татаад эхэлбэл асуудал дагуулна гэж ярих юм?

-Хадгаламж гэдэг бол нэг төрлийн хөрөнгө оруулалт. Хүмүүс сул байгаа мөнгөөрөө компанийн хувьцаа болон үнэт цаас худалдан авах, худалдаа наймаа хийх, хөдлөх, үл хөдлөх хөрөнгө худалдан авахад зарцуулах болно. Нөгөөтэйгүүр, валют худалдан авч гудсан дороо хийх эсвэл банкинд хадгалуулах гэсэн сонголтоос аль нэгийг ашиглан ямар нэг байдлаар хөрөнгө оруулалт хийх ашиглан ямар нэг байдлаар хөрөнгө оруулалт хийх болно шүү дээ.

Одоогоор компанийн хувьцаа, бонд худалдан авах, худалдаа наймаа, үйлдвэрлэл эрхлэх замаар эрсдэлээ өөрөө үүрээд жилд 12-14 хувийн орлого олох уу эсвэл эрсдэлээ банкинд үүрүүлээд энэ хэмжээний орлогыг хадгаламжаасаа олох уу гэдэг сонголтыг хийж байгаа. Түүнээс гадна 20 хүртэл сая төгрөгийн хадгаламжийг төрөөс даатгасан байгаа. Тухайлбал, жилд 12 хувийн хүү төлдөг банкны хадгаламжинд мөнгөө хадгалуулах нь бусад төрлийн хөрөнгө оруулалтаас амар хялбар, найдвартай гэж үзвэл энэ нь тухайн хүний л сонголт. Хадгаламжийн хүүг хүчээр бууруулвал дээрх хөрөнгө оруулалтын сонголтод төр хүчээр оролцож гажуудал үүсгэж байгаа хэрэг. Ингэвэл банкны салбарт хуримтлагдсан хадгаламжийн үлэмж хэсэг банкнаас гадагшилна. Суларсан мөнгө валют худалдаж авснаар төгрөгийн ханш сулрах эрсдэлийг дагуулна.

-Та бүх л салбарт үнийн "хөөс”-ийг үүсгэнэ гэж хэлээд байна уу?

-Нэг хэсэг нь орон сууц, хөдлөх болон үл хөдлөх хөрөнгө худалдан авна. Тэгэхээр энэ салбарт "хөөс”-тэй үнэ тогтоно. Бид эдийн засаг 17 хувиар өсч байх тэр үед барилгын салбарт хэрхэн үнэ өссөнийг харсан. Нөгөө талаас нь харвал банкнаас татсан хадгаламжийн мөнгөө өөр хоорондоо өндөр хүүтэй зээлдүүлж эхэлнэ. Ингэснээр сүүдрийн эдийн засаг томорч иргэдийн хадгаламж болон банкуудаас авч буй татварын орлого буурна. Бас нэг эрсдэл нь хөрөнгийн урсгал удааширна. Хөрөнгийн бирж рүү нэг хэсэг хөрөнгө явж болох хэдий ч илүү эрсдэл үүрэх болно гэдэг болгоомжлол хүмүүсийн дунд бий. Яагаад гэвэл манайд хөрөнгийн зах зээлийн хөгжил сул байгаа. Сүүлийн жилүүдэд бага зэрэг идэвхжих хандлага гарч байгаа хэдий ч олон нийт төдийлөн оролцоо муу байгаа болов уу.

-Төгрөгийн хүчийг сулруулдаг хүчин зүйлийн нэг нь инфляц. Тиймээс хадгаламж эзэмшигчид инфляцийн төвшнөөс өндөр хүү бодуулахыг зорьдог гэж байсныг тань санаж байна?

-Хадгаламж эзэмшигчид болон хөрөнгө оруулагчид мөнгөө ямагт инфляцийн төвшнөөс дээш хувиар хадгалуулах, ашиг олох сонирхолтой байдаг. Инфляци найман хувьтай байвал иргэд, аж ахуйн нэгжүүд нэг жилийн хугацаатай хадгаламжаа түүнээс дээш хувиар хадгалуулахыг хүснэ. Зарим жилд инфляц 10-15 хувь болж өсдөг тул хадгаламжийн хүүг үүнтэйгээ уялдуулан нэмэх болдог. Монгол Улсын эрсдэл өндөр байгаа нөхцөлд дотоодын хүүг зохиомлоор буулгавал гадаадаас орж ирэх зээлийн хөрөнгө буурна. Ийнхүү банкин дахь хадгаламж, болон гадаадын зээл татрах тул зээлийн эх үүсвэр хомсдож зээлийн дундаж хүү өссөнөөр өрхийн болон жижиг, дунд, бичил бизнесийн салбарт зээл олдохгүй болох эрсэлтэй.

-Тэгвэл яах ёстой вэ?

-Зээл, хадгаламжийн хүүг төрөөс хүчээр хязгаарлах тухай ярихын оронд бизнес дэх төрийн оролцоог хязгаарлах нь зүйтэй. Түүнээс гадна ажлын байрыг олноор бий болгон тогтвор суурьшилтай ажиллах нөхплийг нь бүрдүүлэх нь зүйтэй. Өөрөөр хэлбэл, бизнесийн салбарыг хөгжүүлэх төрийн бодлогыг зөв зарчмаар явуулах нь ажлын байрыг бий болгохоос гадна улсын эдийн засагт ч дорвитой дэвшил гарах болно. Мэдээж тогтвортой орлоготой хүн хуримтлал үүсгэх боломжтой болж хадгаламжтай болохыг зорино. Цаашилбал, банкны салбарынхны хувьд хадгаламж эзэмшигчдийнхээ тоог нэмэгдүүлэх бодлого баримталж ажиллана. Энэ нь бидний зорилт юм.

 

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