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Эдийн засгийн өсөлтөө шагшин магтах хойгуур...

Эдийн засгийн өсөлтөө шагшин магтах хойгуур...


Энэхүү бичвэрт аль нэг улс төрийн хучин, хувь албан тушаалтны үйл ажиллагааг буруутгах утга агуулаагүй бөгөөд ирээдүйд үүсэж болзошгүй эрсдэлээс сэрэмжлүүлэхийг зорилоо.

Сонгуулийн өмнөх жил, үүнийг залгах "сонгуулийн солиорол” судлаачдын санааг хамгийн их зовоож буй зүйл гэдэг нь сүүлийн үеийн уулзалт, цугларалтаас улам бүр мэдрэгдэх болж. Бараг л уламжлал болтлоо тогтсон эрх баригч намын ард түмнийхээ өмнө амласандаа хүрэх гэсэн харалган оролдлого, өрсөлдөгч хүчнүүдийн шил шилээ дарсан амлалтууд одоо л нэг тогтворжиж буй Монголын эдийн засгийг шороотой нь хутгаж мэднэ. 

Хашир эдийн засагчид муу амласан байж болох ч өмнөх туршлагуудаас харахад, Монголын улс төрийн мөчлөг дөрөв, дөрвөн жилээр ийм зүй тогтолтой явж ирсэн. Нэг ёсондоо Монгол төрийн алсын хараа дөрөвхөн жилийн цаадахыг хардаггүй. Дунд нь гүйцэтгэх засаглалаа 1-2 удаа сольдог гэж үзвэл түүнээс ч богино зайгаар хэмжигдэж байна.

Харин сонгуулийн үеэр нэгхэн сарын цаадахыг бодолцдоггүй гэхэд болно. Үүний горыг 22 их наяд төгрөгөөр хэмжигдэж буй Засгийн газрын өр илтгэдэг. Монгол Улсын иргэн бүр долоон сая төгрөгийн өртэй гэх бодит үнэн. Гэхдээ өнгөрсөн гурав орчим жилд монголчуудын өр буураагүй ч өрөө төлөх чадвар бага ч болов дээшилжээ. Бас л чамлахааргүй амжилт шүү.

Монгол Улсын Засгийн газар, Олон улсын валютын сантай хамтран эдийн засгаа 2020 он хүртэл зурагласны дагуу үлдэж буй багахан хугацаанд өөрсдөдөө ахадсан мөнгө цацдаг явдал 2020 оны зургаадугаар сарыг хүртэл гарах магадлал бага. Гэхдээ түүнээс өмнө эрх баригчид Олон улсын валютын сан тэргүүтэй гадаадын түншүүдээ мурьчихгүй тохиолдолд шүү. Валютын сангийн тооцооллоор Монгол Улсын эдийн засаг дунджаар таван хувийн өсөлт үзүүлж, 2020 он гэхэд 29.3 их наяд төгрөгт хүрэх учиртай.

Үүний үр дүнд 2016 онд ДНБ-ий 87.5 хувьтай тэнцээд байсан Засгийн газрын өр 2020 он гэхэд 70.7 болж буурах төсөөлөл гарч байлаа. Тэгвэл өнгөрсөн хоёр жилийн хугацаанд дэлхийн зах зээл дээр түүхий эдийн ханш өндөр тогтож ирсний нөлөөгөөр эдийн засгийн өсөлт тооцоолсноос харьцангуй өндөр гарсан юм. Засгийн газрын өр өнгөрсөн 2018 оны жилийн эцсийн байдлаар 22.4 их наяд төгрөг буюу ДНБ-ий 58.9 хувьтай тэнцэж байна. 

Энэ бол Валютын сангийн тооцооллоор 2022 онд гарах байсан үр дүн бөгөөд бид хоёр жил хожжээ. Үлдэж буй хугацаанд ямар нэг асуудал гарахгүй бол ОУВС-гийн "Өргөтгөсөн санхүүжилтийн хөтөлбөр” тохирсон ёсоороо 2020 оны сонгуулийн өмнөхөн дуусах хуваарьтай үргэлжилж байгаа. Харин уг хөтөлбөр дууссаны дараа "Монголчууд хэрхэн бие даан аж төрөх вэ” гэдэг асуулт урган гарч ирнэ.

ӨСӨЛТИЙН ОДТОЙ МАН-Д ӨГЧ БУЙ СУДЛААЧДЫН ЗӨВЛӨГӨӨ

Эрх баригч МАН-ын зүгээс 2016 оны парламентын сонгуулийн үеэр хийсэн гол ухуулга АН иргэдийг дааж давшгүй өрөнд оруулснаар өрнөж билээ. Энэ нь Засгийн газраас төсвийн буруу бодлого баримталсан, Төв банк төсвийн шинжтэй үйл ажиллагаа явуулсантай холбоотой хэмээн одоо ч жишээ татсаар байгаа. Тэгвэл одоогийн эрх баригчид АН-ын одоогийн алдааг давтахгүй гэх газаргүй. Учир нь ОУВС-гийн хөтөлбөр ирэх парламентын сонгуулиас нэг сарын өмнө дуусах бөгөөд ингэснээр эрх баригчид гэрээгээр хүлээсэн хатуу нөхцөл, санхүүгийн чанга хяналтаас чөлөөлөгдөх юм. (ОУВС-ийн захирлуудын зөвлөл 2017 оны тавдугаар сарын 24-нд Монгол Улсад гурван жилийн хугацаанд хэрэгжүүлэх "Өргөтгөсөн санхүүжилтийн хөтөлбөр”-ийг дэмжиж баталсан байдаг)

Чухам үүнийг л ойрын хугацаанд эдийн засагт учирч мэдэх эрсдэл гэж нэрлэх болж. Саяхан "Гэрэгэ партнерс" болон Эдийн засгийн судалгаа, эрдэм шинжилгээний хүрээлэнгээс танилцуулсан судалгаанд дараах гурван эрсдэлийг онцолжээ. Эхнийх нь Монгол Улсын экспортын гол орлого болоод буй нүүрсний үнэ дэлхийн зах зээл дээр унах эрсдэл. 

Нүүрсний үнэ дэлхийн зах зээл дээр 65 ам.доллар болж буурахад, Монгол Улс экспортын орлогынхоо 30 хувийг алдаж, монголчуудын бодит цалин буурах тооцоо гарчээ. Хоёрдугаарт, учирч болзошгүй эрсдэлээр сонгуулийн мөчлөг буюу Засгийн газрын зардлын өсөлт нэрлэж байна. Хэрэв эрх баригчдын зүгээс улс төрийн мөчлөгийг даамжруулах тооцоо судалгаагүй шийдвэр гаргасан тохиолдолд 2021 оноос төсвийн алдагдал өсөж, эдийн засгийн өсөлт саарна. Хамгийн гол нь Засгийн газрын өр 2025 он гэхэд эргээд ДНБ-ий 70 гаруй хувьтай тэнцэх төсөөлөл гаргажээ. 

Гуравдугаарт, Монгол Улсад орж ирж буй гадаад валютын гол суваг болох Оюутолгойн хөрөнгө оруулалт гацвал мөн л эдийн засгийн өсөлт саарч, төсвийн алдагдал нэмэгдэх эрсдэл гарах магадлалтай аж. Мэдээж, хөрөнгө оруулагч талаас Оюутолгойн далд уурхайд 2017-2022 оны хороонд оруулах 4.7 тэрбум ам.долларын гадаад валютын орох урсгал татарвал, төгрөгийн ханшийг сулруулах том эрсдэлтэй. Ерөнхийдөө дээрх гурван эрсдэл аль аль нь эдийн засагт гараад буй эерэг байдлыг эргүүлэх хүчтэй. Үүн дотроос нүүрсний үнийг монголчууд өөрсдөө удирдаж чадахгүй. 

Тэгвэл Оюутолгойн үйл ажиллагаа тогтвортой үргэлжлэх, Засгийн газрын зардал өсөх эсэхийг бол удирдах бүрэн боломжтой аж. Үүнээс үзэхэд, түүхий эдийн үнийн өсөлтийн үед эрх баригч байж таардаг МАН-ын Засгийн газар зөв бодлого баримталж чадвал ирээдүйд учирч болзошгүй эрсдэлийн 60 гаруй хувийг лав хаах боломж харагдаж байна. Эсрэгээрээ уналтын үед таарчихдаг АН-ынхаа алдааг бүү давтаасай. 

Жил гаруйнхны дараа засгийн эрх барих хугацаандаа яг хэдэн иргэнийг ядуурлаас ангижруулсан гэдгээ тоо баримттай нь тайлагнах хэрэг гарна. Лав л 2014 онд Дэлхийн банк, манай статистикийн газартай хамтран гаргасан тайланд Монгол Улсын гурван хүн тутмын нэг нь ядуу гэсэн харамсалтай дүнг дурдаж байлаа. Мөн Монгол Улсын хүн амын тэн хагасыг дөрвөн жилийн дотор аз жаргалтай болгоно гэж амласан нийслэлийн МАН ч дуугүй суух эрхгүй. Монгол Улс аз жаргалын индексээр хэдэд жагсаж буй билээ. Харин эдгээр асуултын хариултыг эдийн засгаа золин байж бүү зохиогоосой.

ХӨРӨНГӨ ОРУУЛАЛТЫН ЧИГ БУРУУ ЭРГЭЖ МЭДЭХЭЭР БАЙНА

Бид дотооддоо багахан амжилтаа шагшин магтаж байх хойгуур олон улсын бирж дээр Монгол Улсын Засгийн газрын бондуудын ханш уналт үзүүлэх болсныг шийдвэр гаргагчид анзаараа байлгүй. Олон улсын бирж дээр гаргасан бондын ханш нь тухайн улсыг чиглэх гадаадын хөрөнгө оруулагчдын сонирхлыг давхар илэрхийлэх хандлагатай байдгаас үзэхэд, гаднынхны нүдэнд Монголын эдийн засаг тийм ч таатай хөрөнгө оруулалтын орчин гэж харагдахгүй байгаа бололтой. Засгийн газрын зээлжих зэрэглэл өссөний дээр гадаад зах зээлийн орчин тогтвортой байгаа энэ үед хөрөнгө оруулагчдын шийдвэр дотоодын орчноос хамааран өөрчлөгдөж эхэлсэн нь энэ болов уу. 

Үүнийг мөн л дээр дурдсан сонгуулийн мөчлөгтэй ч холбоотой, хувь улстөрчийн тоглолтод хамруулан үзэх боломжтой. Уг нь Засгийн газар жилийн дараа иргэдийнхээ өмнө хэлэх үг, хийсэн ажилтай байхыг хүсвэл хэн нэгнийг байцааж шалгахад хүч хаях бус ажлын байрыг нэмэгдүүлэн татварын орлого, гадаадын хөрөнгө оруулалтаа илүү ихээр татах тал дээр анхаарал хандуулах учиртай байж. 

Гэтэл Монгол Улс 2020-2024 онд түүхэндээ байгаагүй их хэмжээний гадаад өрийн эргэлт төлөлт хийх хүлээлттэй байгаа. Хуваарийн дагуу 2020 онд БНХАУ-ын Ардын банктай хийсэн хоёр тэрбум ам.долларын своп хэлэлцээ дуусна, 2021 онд 500 сая ам.долларын "Мазаалай” бонд, 2022 онд Монгол Улсын Засгийн газрын 10 жилийн хугацаатай гаргасан нэг тэрбум ам.долларын "Чингис" бондын өрийг төлнө. Түүнчлэн 2023 онд 600 сая ам.долларын 8.75 хувийн хүүтэй "Хуралдай” бонд, 2024 онд 5.625 хувийн хүүтэй 800 сая ам.долларын "Гэрэгэ" бондын төлбөр төлөгдөхөөр байгаа нь төсөвт ирэх ачаалал юм.

 
Эх сурвалж: Үндэсний шуудан сонин, Д.Дорж 

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