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Монгол улсын эдийн засгийн өсөлт 2020 оноос саарах төлөвтэй


Бодит секторыг дэмжих томоохон төслүүдийн ирээдүй, гадаадын шууд хөрөнгө оруулалт нэмэгдэх эсэх нь тодорхой бус хэвээр байна гэж Төв банк онцоллоо. Мөн 2020 онд уул уурхайн бус салбарын үйлдвэрлэлийн нөлөөгөөр эдийн засгийн өсөлт саарна гэж тооцоолжээ. Харин "Эрдэнэс Тавантолгой”-ийн IPO, газрын тос боловсруулах үйлдвэрийн төслийг ирээдүйд эдийн засгийн өсөлтөд эергээр нөлөөлнө гэж үзсэн байна.
2019 онд төсвийн урсгал зардал болон хөрөнгө оруулалтын зардал нэмэгдэх төлөвтэй байна. Энэ нь уул уурхайн бус салбарын өсөлтийг тэтгэж, өмнөх төсөөллөөс бага зэрэг сайжрахаар байна гэж Төв банк онцлов.
Эдгээр салбарт барилга, эрчим хүч, боловсруулах, худалдааны салбарыг нэрлэж байна. Уул уурхайн болон уул уурхайн бус салбар эрчимжин 2019 онд эдийн засгийн өсөлт тогтвортой байх бол 2020 онд уул уурхайн бус салбарын үйлдвэрлэлийн нөлөөгөөр эдийн засгийн өсөлт саарахаар байна гэжээ. Харин Засгийн газар үүнээс арай өөдрөг буюу найман хувиар өснө гэж тооцоолсон юм. Ингэхдээ дөрвөн хүчин зүйл эдийн засгийн өсөлтийг дэмжинэ гэж тодорхойлжээ. Үүнд татварын шинэчлэл, төсвийн хөрөнгө оруулалт, цалин тэтгэвэр нэмэх, газрын тосны үйлдвэрийн бүтээн байгуулалт оржээ. Үүнээс татварын багц хуулийг УИХ-д өргөн барьсан ч УИХ хэлэлцэж батлаагүй хүлээгдэж байна.
Харин олон улсын байгууллагуудын зүгээс Монгол Улсын эдийн засаг 2018 онд 6-6.6 хувийн хооронд өсөх төлөв гаргаад байна. Тухайлбал, Азийн хөгжлийн банк 2019 онд Монгол Улсын эдийн засаг 6.1 хувиар өснө гэж таамагласан нь 2018 оныхоос 0.3 нэгжээр бага байгаа юм.
Энэ талаар уул уурхайн хөрөнгө оруулалт цаашид үргэлжлэх хэдий ч өсөлт нь саарснаар 2019 онд Монгол Улсын дотоодын нийт бүтээгдэхүүний өсөлт ялимгүй буурах хандлагатай байгаа гэж хэвлэлийн мэдэгдэлдээ онцолж байв.
Олон Улсын Валютын Сангийн хувьд зургаа дахь шатны үнэлгээний ажлын хэсгийн тохиролцоо хийгээд байна. Дотоод эрэлтээс үүдэж Төв банк мөнгөний бодлогоо чангаруулах хэрэгтэй гэж онцолсон юм. Харин Дэлхийн банк Монгол Улсын эдийн засгийн өсөлтийн сорилтуудыг тодорхойлжээ. Үүнд өмнөд хил дээрх нүүрсний экспортыг шийдвэрлэх, улс төр болон бодлогын тогтворгүй байдал өсөж байгаа, 2020 оны сонгуулиас үүдэж мега төслүүдийн хэрэгжилтэд нөлөөлөх зэрэг хүчин зүйлийг нэрлэсэн байна.

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