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2018 он гараад удаагүй байгаа энэ үед мөнгөний төлөвлөгөөгөө боловсруулахад туслах үр жимс сайтай томоохон боломжууд Орост бий. Нүдний шилний цаанаас бус харин бодитоор ойлгоё гэвэл үүнийг унш.

Өнгөрсөн жилийн эцэст ОХУ-ын эдийн засаг тэмдэглүүштэй өсөлтөнд хүрсэн билээ. ДНБ-ий өсөлт 1.6 хувьд хүрч, хөдөө аж ахуйн салбар 2.5 хувиар өргөжжээ. Энэ мэдээллийг өнгөрсөн сарын 11-нд Ерөнхийлөгч В.Путин илтгэлдээ онцолсон юм. Тэгвэл Засгийн газар энэ өсөлт цаашид хадгалагдана гэж итгэлтэй найдаж байгаа. Тэгэхээр энэ нь гадаадын хөрөнгө оруулагчдад таатай мэдээ болохгүй гэж үү.

Жилийн эхэнд бид Оросын шинжээчдээс эдийн засгийн хүлээлтийг нь хуваалцахыг хүссэн юм. Тэдний тайлбарлаж буйгаар доор өгүүлэх салбарууд хамгийн их ашиг орлогыг хөрөнгө оруулагчдад амлаж буй.

ЭДИЙН ЗАСАГ ӨССӨН ХЭВЭЭР БАЙНА

Global FX-ийн хөрөнгө оруулалтын шинжээч Иван Каряакин "ОХУ-ын эдийн засгийн өсөлт өнгөрсөн жилийнхээс дутахааргүй өндөр байх боломжтой” гэж хэлсэн байна. "Эдийн засгийн голлох хүчин зүйлс ч адил хэвээр байх төлөвтэй. Газрын тосны үнэ нэг баррель нь 55 ам.доллараас буурчихгүй бол рублийн ханш тогтвортой хадгалагдах боломжтой. Харин инфляц дөрвөн хувьд байх төлөвтэй байна. Өсөлтийн хувьд хоёр хувиас хэтрэхгүй” гэж тэрээр нэмж хэллээ.

Alekhin and Partners хуулийн фирмийн үүсгэн байгуулагч Роман Алехин ОХУ-ын эдийн засгийн өсөлт нам дор хэвээр байна гэж бодож байгаа бөгөөд энэ онд ч нөхцөл байдал хэвээр үргэлжилнэ гэж үзэж байгаа аж. Газрын тосны үнэд найдаж болох хэдий ч банкуудын зөвшөөрөл хураагдаж, геополитикийн хориг арга хэмжээнүүд нэмэгдвэл зүй ёсны томоохон асуудал үүснэ гэж үзэж байгаа юм.

Ийнхүү тэд сөрөг төсөөлөлтэй байгаа бол зарим шинжээч өөдрөг хандлагатай хэвээр байна. Сингапур дахь Castle Family Office-ийн ерөнхийлөгч Элдияр Муратов Оросын эдийн засаг өмнөх жилийнхээсээ бага ч атугай өснө гэж бодож байна. "Дараагийн хоёр жилд эдийн засаг бидэнд гэнэтийн өөдрөг боломжуудаар бэлэг барина гэж үзэж байна. Өсөлт энэ онд 2.8 хувьд ч хүрч болно. 2019 онд газрын тосны үнэ нэг баррель нь 55 ам.доллараас унахгүй бол энэ өсөлт үргэлжилнэ” гэж тэрээр хэлэв.

РУБЛЬ ТОГТВОРТОЙ БАЙНА

Оросын валют тун ч тогтвортой байсаар ирсэн. "Рубль-ам.долларын харьцах ханш 60 рубль байсан. Энэ нь ч өөрчлөгдөхгүй байх төлөвтэй” гэж Муратов хэлж байна.

УЛС ТӨР ЭДИЙН ЗАСАГТ НЬ НӨЛӨӨЛӨХГҮЙ

Улс төрийн чухал шийдвэрүүд нь эдийн засагт нөлөөлөхгүй байхыг оросууд чухалчилдаг. Дэлхийн аваргын тэмцээний дэд бүтцийн ажлууд хэдийнэ эхэлсэн энэ үед хөлбөмбөгийн хөгжөөн дэмжигчид гадаад улс орнуудаас зорин ирж байна. Ингэснээр рублийн ханш өсөхөд нөлөөлнө гэж шинжээчид харж байна. Ерөнхийлөгчийн сонгууль ч эдийн засгийн бодлогыг өөрчлөөгүй гэж хөрөнгө оруулагчид үздэг.

"Владимир Путин эдийн засгийн стратегид өндөр ач холбогдол өгдөггүй. Учир нь энэ нь түүнд хэрэгтэй чухал зүйлсийн нэг биш” гэж Иван Каряакин хэлж байна. "Шинэ удирдагчийн бодлого нь нийгэм болоод нийтийн чухал асуудлын шийдлүүдийг танилцуулах явдал юм” гэж тэрээр хэлжээ.

Эзнээ хүлээсэн зах зээл үлэмж боломж, ашгийг амлаж байна

TeleTrade-ийн ахлах шинжээч Петр Пушкарев "Санхүүгийн зах зээлд бонд санал болгох нь хөрөнгө оруулалтын томоохон боломж юм” гэжээ. Яагаад гэвэл үнэт цаасны зах зээл нь эдийн засгийн өсөлтөөс шалтгаалдаггүй билээ.

Түүнчлэн мэдээллийн технологи, авто машин үйлдвэрлэл, уул уурхай, хөдөө аж ахуй болох аялал жуулчлалын салбар өндөр ашгийг хөрөнгө оруулагчиддаа амлаж байна. Учир нь эдгээр нь маш чухал учраас улсаас дэмжлэг авах боломжтой салбарууд төдийгүй өсөл­төөрөө тэргүүлдэг билээ.

АМЕРИКИЙН АЖИЛ ЭРХЛЭЛТ ДАХИН ӨСӨВ

АНУ-ын ажил эрхлэлт сүүлийн найман жилийн хамгийн өндөр үзүүлэлтэд хүрсэн тухай Ройтерс мэдээлж байна. Энэ өсөлт бол 2009 оноос хойш хамгийн идэхтэй дүр зураг болоод байна. Ингэснээр хөдөлмөрийн зах зээл ажиллах хүчийг хангалттай хүлээн авчээ. Аж үйлдвэр, барилга, бараа бүтээгдэхүүний зах зээл дэх ажиллах хүчний хэмжээ өнгөрсөн сард 200 мянган хүнээр нэмэгдсэн нь арванхоёрдугаар сарын 160 мянга давсан үзүүлэлтээс даруй өндөр байгааг АНУ-ын Хөдөлмөрийн яамнаас мэдээллээ.

Гэвч ажилгүйдлийн төвшин 17 жилийн хамгийн бага доогуур хэмжээ болох 4.1 хувиас өөрчлөгдөөгүй байна. Нэг цагийн дундаж хөлс өнгөрсөн сард 26.74 ам.долларт хүрч 0.3 хувиар өсчээ. Энэ нь 2009 оны зургадугаар сараас хойшхи хамгийн томоохон хэмжээний өсөлтөнд тооцогдож байна. Хүйтний улиралд ажилчид бага цагаар ажиллаж байгаа ч энэ нь өсөлтөнд тэгтлээ нөлөөлөөгүй аж.

Ажилгүйдлийг багасгаж, хөдөлмөрийн зах зээлийг идэвхжүүлэхийн тулд Ерөнхийлөгч Д.Трамп болон түүний намынхан компанийн орлогын татварыг 35-аас 21 хувь хүртэл бууруулж, ажил эрхлэлтийг нэмэх замаар эдийн засгаа сэргээхээр оролдож байгаа билээ.

"Ройтерс”-оос эдийн засагчдын дунд явуулсан санал асуулгаас харахад тэд барилга, бараа бүтээгдэхүүний салбарт ажиллагсдын тоо 180 мянга хүрч өсөх боломжтой, мөн ажилгүйдлийн төвшин 4.1 хувиас өөрчлөгдөхгүй гэж таамаглаж буйгаа илэрхийлжээ. Эдийн засаг сар бүр 75 мянгаас 100 мянган ажлын байр шинээр бий болгож байж хөдөлмөрийн насныхны хэрэгцээг хангахаар байгаа юм. Тэгвэл Трампын засаг захиргааны өнөөгийн нэгжийн удирдлаган дор сар бүрийн ажиллах хүчний тоо дунджаар 176 мянгад хүрээд байна. Ерөнхийлөгч асан Обамагийн ажиллаж байх үед энэ тоо 208 мянгаар хэмжигдаж байжээ.

Ажиллах хүчний өсөлт энэ жил саарах төлөвтэй байна. Учир нь хөдөлмөрийн зах зээл ажиллах хүчээр хангалттай дүүрсэн аж. Компаниуд чадвартай ажилтан олоход бэрх болсны дээр эдийн засагчид цалингийн өсөлт хөдөлмөрийн зах зээлийн ажиллагсдын тоотой эсрэгцсээр байгаа юм.

Эх сурвалж: "Зууны мэдээ” сонин

Ж.ЦОГЗОЛМАА

Сэтгэгдэл бичих

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